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Examining the differing trends of violence between Wales and England

Violence is a public health problem, with significant individual, economic, health and social care costs. Monitoring violence trends and distribution is a key step of a public health approach to violence prevention.

Health service data in England and Wales are used to monitor temporal change in violence prevalence. However, administrative data relies on service contact and recording practices, while nationally representative surveys, such as the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), record information on violence even when services were not sought. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) uses CSEW to estimate prevalence of violent crime and changes over time, publishing these for England and Wales combined. Therefore, there is a need to examine whether trends in violence in Wales differ from trends in England, which is the aim of this report.

Dr Polina Obolenskaya led the study, Temporal trends in prevalence of violence in Wales: analysis of a national victimisation survey, with VISION colleagues Dr Anastasia Fadeeva, Emma Barton, Dr Alex Walker, Lara Snowdon and Professor Sally McManus. Using CSEW data, for years 2002–2020, they compared trends in prevalence of violence victimisation between Wales and England, for all adults and by gender.

Country-disaggregated data shows that the prevalence of violence was generally lower in Wales than in England for the first decade of the century. Analyses by gender shows further disparities between countries. Males in Wales and England and females in England experienced a decline in violence victimisation between 2002 and 2015 but there was no decline in violence for females in Wales until after 2016. This decline in violence for females in Wales differed for females in England who experienced an upturn in prevalence of violence from 2015.

Different patterns of violence in England and Wales indicate that relying on combined estimates of violence for England and Wales in strategy development and planning in Wales should be avoided. Further work is required to understand why trends differ between England and Wales, including analyses accounting for socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of each population, as well as thorough considerations of potential policy drivers.

Recommendation

Given differences in prevalence and trends in violence between Wales and England, relying on estimates based on the countries combined to inform strategic planning in Wales is problematic. Using Wales-specific estimates and trends in violence is therefore recommended.

To download: Temporal trends in prevalence of violence in Wales: analysis of a national victimisation survey

To cite: P. Obolenskaya, A. Fadeeva, E.R. Barton, A. Walker, L.C. Snowdon, S. McManus, Temporal trends in prevalence of violence in Wales: analysis of a national victimisation survey,
Public Health, Volume 245, 2025,105775, ISSN 0033-3506, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2025.105775.

For further information, please contact Polina at polina.obolenskaya@citystgeorges.ac.uk

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Addressing abuse in teenage relationships

This VISION Policy Brief highlights emerging findings and policy recommendations from ongoing research and stakeholder engagement into abuse in teenage relationships carried out by the UKPRP VISION consortium.

Abuse—whether physical, emotional, or sexual—within young people’s relationships is often overlooked in both research and policy. The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) finds that young women aged 16 to 19 are more likely to experience domestic abuse than any other age group. Despite this high prevalence, this age group is less likely to be referred to support services. Furthermore, the CSEW does not cover individuals under the age of 16, leaving a major gap in understanding of prevalence.

Key findings:

Lack of consistent terminology and recognition – various terms are used to describe abuse in teenage relationships, including ‘teen dating violence’, ‘adolescent domestic abuse’, ‘teenage relationship abuse’ and ‘youth intimate partner violence’. Both the workshop with young people and the roundtables identified that young people generally do not associate the behaviours they experience with any of these terms and are more likely to use language like ‘toxic relationships’.
Very limited UK research on risk and protective factors for under 16s – our rapid review found that in the last 10 years there was only one UK academic study that looked into risk and protective factors for abuse in teenage relationships for those aged under 16.
Importance of schools and communities – unlike adult domestic abuse, which is largely experienced in private, abuse experienced in teenage relationships is more likely to occur outside of the home, especially within schools.
Very difficult to measure extent of issue – due to the current Home Office definition of domestic abuse there is very limited and consistently recorded administrative data collected on those under 16 who are experiencing abuse.
Need to take a more radical review of systems – our discussion highlighted the difficulty of addressing abuse in teenage relationships within the current systems.

Recommendations for change:

Develop a national strategy – prevention and early intervention
Explore support for young people – victims and those carrying out harmful behaviours
Commission research into under 16s – including those with lived experience and taking a whole systems approach
Improve measurement in under 16s
Agree terminology and produce an associated education programme

To download the policy briefing: VISION Policy Brief: Addressing Abuse in Teenage Relationships

To cite: Weir, Ruth; Barrow-Grint, Katy (2025). VISION Policy Brief: Addressing Abuse in Teenage Relationships. City, University of London. Report. https://doi.org/10.25383/city.26539906.v1

For further information, please contact: Ruth at ruth.weir@city.ac.uk

How much violence is there?

This VISION Policy Brief proposes improvements to the definitions and measurement of violence using the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), in order to more fully capture different aspects of violent crime, including violence against women and girls (VAWG). The briefing is aimed at researchers, national statistics offices, and others involved in violence research and policy. It draws on a paper recently published in The British Journal of Criminology, Definition and measurement of violence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales.

Key findings:

The current definition of violent crime excludes key types: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) headline measure of ‘violent crime’ currently excludes sexual violence, robberies, threats of violence, and many incidents of violence where criminal damage was also involved.
A broader definition would better capture scale, harm and inequalities: We use a broader measure of violence that includes these currently excluded forms of violence. This broader measure not only reveals a higher prevalence of victimisation in the population as a whole, it also reveals hidden inequalities. Women are more likely than men to experience sexual violence and threats of violence: excluding these from current estimates leads to rates of violence in women, especially domestic violence, being underestimated. The proportion of people physically and emotionally harmed by violence is also better estimated using this broader definition, particularly affecting estimates for women.

Recommendation for change:

National statistics on violence in England and Wales should show violence estimates using a broader definition of violence alongside violent crime statistics to give a more comprehensive overview of violence and its societal impact.

To download the policy briefing, please see below. To download the paper upon which the policy recommendation is based, please see: Definition and Measurement of Violence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales: Implications for the Amount and Gendering of Violence | The British Journal of Criminology | Oxford Academic

The citation for the paper: Davies, E., Obolenskaya, P., Francis, B., Blom, N., Phoenix, J., Pullerits, M., and Walby, S. (2024), Definition and Measurement of Violence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales: Implications for the Amount and Gendering of Violence, The British Journal of Criminology. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjc/azae050

VISION Policy Briefing for downloading:

Violence Measurement_VISION Policy Briefing Download

Definition and measurement of violence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales

The definitions and methodology used in surveys to measure violence have implications for its estimated volume and gendered distribution. The Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) uses quite a narrow definition of ‘violence against the person’ which excludes crimes which are arguably violent in nature.

VISION researchers Elouise Davies, Polina Obolenskaya, Brian Francis and Niels Blom worked with colleagues Jessica Phoenix, Merili Pullerits and Sylvia Walby to expand the CSEW’s measurement of violence to include threats, robbery, sexual violence and mixed violence/property crimes as violence.

The team investigates the implications of using an expanded definition of violence on the subsequent estimates of interpersonal violence and its distribution (the proportion of incidents of violence committed towards women, and the proportion of incidents that are committed by domestic relations rather than acquaintances or strangers). Additionally, they investigate how the expanded definition of violence shows an increased health burden of violence by investigating the number of injuries and the number and proportion of victims that are strongly emotionally impacted.

This results in a shift in the gender distribution of violence, with a higher proportion of violence against women (from 39% to 58%) and by domestic perpetrators (from 29% to 32%).

Impacts of violence – injuries and emotional harm – are also affected by the change in definition and disproportionally so for women.

For further information, please see: Definition and Measurement of Violence in the Crime Survey for England and Wales: Implications for the Amount and Gendering of Violence | The British Journal of Criminology | Oxford Academic (oup.com)

Or please contact Elouise at e.davies4@lancaster.ac.uk

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The next generation of researchers studying violence

by City criminology undergraduate student, Matilde Sciarrini

As a Criminology with Data Analytics student, I had the opportunity to complete a work placement at the Violence and Society Centre (VASC), through the Q-step programme, which aims to improve quantitative skills in social science students. My initial interest in VASC and their main research project, the VISION Consortium, stemmed from the desire to better understand the different experiences of victims of violent crimes, and the amount of support they received from their family, friends and social services.

The work placement took place one day a week for 10 weeks, during which I was tasked to analyse crime reporting trends, by utilising the Crime Survey for England and Wales. This survey is divided into a non-victim form, which gathers general demographic information about the respondents, such as sex, age and ethnicity; and a victim form, specifically asking about crimes they experienced in the past year.

During the first few weeks, I selected the relevant variables, refined by recoding skills, and harmonised the variables from 2001 to 2020. The variables I selected for my analysis included:

Did the police come to know about the matter?
How did they come to know about it?
Can you tell me why you decided to report this crime to the police?
Can you tell me why you decided NOT to report this crime to the police?
Do you think the police treated you fairly?
Were you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way in which you were able to report the matter?

I decided to specifically focus on violent and sexual crimes for my analysis. This analysis emphasised the importance of understanding the various reasons for reporting and not reporting violent crimes to the police amongst different groups in society. This would not only help explain the discrepancy between police-recorded crime and the figures from the national victimization survey (Crime Survey for England and Wales), but it would aid in more effectively addressing the victim’s specific socio-cultural needs.

My experience at the Centre was insightful and a valuable opportunity to understand the working of a research centre firsthand. I found that VASC was a more sociable environment than what I had anticipated. Everyone I met was open to provide coding guidance throughout the workday. Moreover, a productive degree of teamwork took place at the Centre, with full-staff meetings occurring on a weekly basis and constant communication between colleagues. This high level of teamwork was also present in their work, with multiple coding debates taking place every day. Although I had no previous knowledge of the Stata software, I was given the opportunity to learn and utilise it as part of my code.

This placement gave me the opportunity not only to enhance my data analysis skills, but to further learn how to work in an office environment and improve my communication with others. I have come to understand how my criminological knowledge can contribute to research, and how it can shape social policies and affect governmental practices. I thoroughly enjoyed the placement since the very first week, having learned the importance of seeking assistance as well as independently solving problems.

Finally, I am grateful for the help and support of my line managers at VASC/VISION, who were always open to provide help and feedback about my work and my future career aspirations. I consider myself very fortunate to have had such an amazing opportunity, and I would encourage others to take an interest in the ongoing work at the Centre.

Presentations from the 2024 VISION Annual Conference

The presentations from the 3rd VISION annual conference are now available for downloading.

The event was held at Kings College London, Strand campus, on 11 June. The theme was Violence prevention in research and policy: Bridging silos. Keynote speakers, Dr Claudia Garcia-Moreno (World Health Organisation) and Professor Katrin Hohl (City, UoL) considered the changes needed for effective violence prevention from the perspectives of health and justice. Three symposiums highlighted interdisciplinary research from the VISION consortium and partners on:

– Violence against older people: Challenges in research and policy;

– Learning across statutory review practices: Origins, ambitions and future directions; and

– Responding to experiences and expressions of interpersonal violence in the workplace

Approximately 80 academics, central and local government officials, practitioners, and voluntary and community sector organisations attended from a range of health and crime / justice disciplines.

All the slides that could be shared are available below. Please feel free to download.

Photo caption: Symposium 3, ‘Responding to experiences and expressions of interpersonal violence in the workplace’. From left to right: Chair, Dr Olumide Adisa (University of Suffolk) and Panellists Dr Vanessa Gash (City, UoL), Dr Alison Gregory (Alison Gregory Consulting), Catherine Buglass (Employers’ Initiative on Domestic Abuse) and Dr Niels Blom (City, UoL)

Professor Gene Feder, VISION Director – Welcome – 1 download

Welcome_VISION-Annual-Conference-2024 Download

Keynote Speaker, Dr Claudia Garcia-Moreno – Violence against women: From research to policy and action – 1 download

Keynote-Speaker-2_Research-to-policy-and-action_2 Download

Symposium 1 – Violence against older people: Challenges in research and policy – 4 downloads (Hourglass, Office for National Statistics, Public Health Wales & VISION)

Symposium-1_Older-people-and-violence_Hourglass Download

Symposium-1_Older-people-and-violence_ONS Download

Symposium-1_Older-people-and-violence_PHW Download

Symposium-1_Older-people-and-violence_VISION Download

Symposium 2 – Learning across statutory review practices: Origins, ambitions and future directions – 1 download

Symposium-2_Statutory-Review-Practice_All Download

Symposium 3 – Responding to experiences and expressions of interpersonal violence in the workplace – 3 downloads (Employers’ Initiative on Domestic Abuse, and 2 from VISION)

Symposium-3_Violence-and-the-workplace_VISION Download

Symposium-3_Violence-and-the-workplace_EIDA Download

Symposium-3_Violence-and-the-workplace_VISION-2 Download

VISION Research Fellows presenting at Crime Surveys User Conference 2024

This event is in the past.

VISION researchers Dr Polina Obolenskaya, Dr Elouise Davies and Dr Niels Blom will present at the Crime Surveys User Conference 2024 on 6 February 2024 in Islington, London.

The event brings data producers and data users together to share updates on the development of the surveys and to showcase research that is being carried out using the data. It is organised by the UK Data Service in collaboration with the Office for National Statistics, Scottish Government and the Home Office.

Polina, Elouise and Niels will each discuss the findings of their recent research using the Crime Survey for England and Wales:

Polina – The rise, fall and stall of violence in England and Wales: How have risks of violence changed for groups in the population?
Elouise – When there’s more than one assailant: Understanding variation in victims’ needs
Niels – New Crime Survey for England and Wales integration code: Impact for investigating
rare events such as different intimate partner perpetrator types

For further information on the conference, please see: Crime Surveys User Conference 2024.

For further information on their research, please contact Polina, Elouise or Niels at: polina.obolenskaya@city.ac.uk; e.davies4@lancaster.ac.uk; or niels.blom@city.ac.uk

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Criminology hindered by lack of longitudinal data to study consequences of victimisation

VISION researchers Dr Vanessa Gash and Dr Niels Blom write in their latest publication, Measures of Violence within the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Survey and the Crime Survey for England and Wales: An Empirical Assessment, that the field of criminology has been hampered by a lack of longitudinal data to examine the consequences of victimisation.

However, recently, ‘Understanding Society’, the United Kingdom Household Panel Survey (UKHLS), began fielding a small battery of questions relating to violence experience. Here, we examined the strengths and weaknesses of these UKHLS measures with similar indices from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW), a widely used and regarded but cross-sectional survey.

Vanessa and Niels empirically assessed the extent to which the UKHLS variables are comparable with those in the CSEW to determine the viability of the UKHLS for the longitudinal study of (fear of) violence and its consequences.

Overall, they regarded the UKHLS to provide an important resource for future panel research on the consequences of victimisation. They found the indicators measuring physical assault to be similar in both sets of data, but also noted differences in prevalence and/or different distributions by socioeconomic group for the indices relating to being threatened and of feeling unsafe.

Nonetheless, Vanessa and Niels maintain their utility for researchers in this field, allowing researchers to uncover new inequalities in violence exposure.

For further information please see: Measures of Violence within the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Survey and the Crime Survey for England and Wales: An Empirical Assessment

Or contact Dr Vanessa Gash at vanessa.gash.1@city.ac.uk

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